Monday, 11 July 2011

n-Systemic Collapse - The Most Probable is Driven By New Regulation

1. Anyone who reads the history of banking and systemic collapses knows a few things about the trajectory of human populations, information flows, symbolic exchanges and synchronic alignments of digital beliefs as the last nth step before criticality is breached and the sandpile slips catastrophically in a beautiful avalanche. These drawdown events have been modelled by Professor Didier Sornette, a geophysicist of first rank who sees fractal signals before financial collapse. Check him out: http://www.er.ethz.ch/people/sornette He is part of a growing brood of "econo-physicists" who believes market prices provide something more than a random pattern.

2. Unfortunately, none of the econo-physicists understand the law and none I know have modelled the fundamentals of law and finance. So, here's the trick. If you understand a bit of the law, a bit of deal mechanics so you can see how trades flow in the financial system, and overlay this vision with category theory diagrams so you can be assured that the multi-dimensional mapping you have in mind is at least an isomorphism in substance and therefore, a testable hypothesis with exact determinants in reality, then you can suggest or propose solutions to problems which are only barely perceptible on the horizon.

3. One problem for sure that is at the level of self-crucifixion is the OTC derivatives rules of the Dodd-Frank Act. The said rules know not what they are unleashing on the people. If we take the rules seriously then $200 trillion or so of financial contracts will need to come under the fold of organised exchanges. This will no doubt immediately accelerate the demand for US Treasuries. See: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/real-margin-threat-600-trillion-exchange-derivatives-moving-central-clearing-multi-trillion- And a very large, uncontrollable chain reaction will begin. Tempting to quote Oppenheimer's loose translation of the Vedas. Instead, please, let's not go there--note the distinction: even though default is invariant, systemic collapse need not be.

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